Stock Market Timing

Background

All stock trading systems featured here use the same stock market timing system, which is almost always in the market. The timing system predicts what direction the market is likely to go (a signaled direction). The system was developed by Optimum Systems (Brian) with Tradestation using about nine years of market data.

Most other timing systems simply use indicators based on price and volume, such as moving averages, MACD, STO, bollinger bands. Our system is different in that it uses proprietary indicators that incorporate both technical and fundamental information not just for the broad market, but also for almost every stock traded on the US exchanges.

Free Timer Signals

You can get free access to all timing signals for a limited period by being an active contributor on this blog: posting comments, asking questions, etc. We choose who qualifies for this offer and will contact you with signal access information.

Timers

We have two timers: trend following and counter trend. The trend-following timer predicts whether the general market direction is up (Long Term Up, or LTUp) or down (Long Term Down, or LTDn). During LTUp periods, we are long the market, and during LTDn periods we are short the market. It works in bull and bear markets.

The counter trend timer is a leading indicator that predicts when a correction is about to occur within the general market direction. When a correction is predicted during a LTDn (a bounce), we change direction and go long. This is called our Bottom Feeder Up (BFUp). Sometimes BFUp goes into cash when market conditions are unclear. When a correction is predicted during a LTUp (a reversal), we change direction and go short. This is called our Top Feeder Down (TFDn). The average length of a signal is three to four weeks.

Using these timers, we are almost always in the market. We keep our money working whenever we can. Each signal has different types of stock selections associated with it. During the trend following periods, we use stocks that are trending in the general market direction. During BFUp, we use stocks that have been beaten up or oversold. During TFDn, we use stocks that are over bought.

Below are the trend following timer signals from Nov 2006 to Jan 2009 using the S&P 500 (purple line). The red down arrows are LTDn signals (go short) and the green up arrows are LTUp signals (go long).

Timer Performance

Here is a comparison of using our timers to buy and sell the S&P 500 versus buying and holding the S&P 500 (SPY ETF). Buying the SPY on 1/3/2000 and holding it to 3/1/2009 created a loss of 50%. So buy and hold was not profitable. Buying and selling the SPY using our timers during this same period produced a gain of 960%. These results do not include dividends nor any stock selections. They just use the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Results are better using our stock selections. The back tested timer equity curve vs. the SPY is shown below. These are hypothetical results based on simulated back tests. Note how smooth the timer curve is and how much it exceeds the SPY results.

Optimum Systems Market Timer vs. SPY Performance

View the details on the market timing signals. For back test details from TradeStation Performance Summary report on these results, click here.

Subscribe to Timer Signals

Many people asked to get the signals from our market timing system. They do their own stock selection and trade management based on those signals. For only $49 per month (paid using paypal), you get:

• Notification of signals the night they are triggered
• Commentary of where we are and what to expect (Are we close to a signal, etc.).
• Timely reply to your questions regarding timing signals.

Please fill out and send form below. You will be contacted with details.

Tags: beginner traders, FAQ, market timing system, stock selection, stock trading system

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